Development and validation of a microsimulation economic model to evaluate the disease burden associated with smoking and the cost-effectiveness of tobacco control interventions in Latin America.

OBJECTIVE To describe the development and validation of a health economic model (HEM) to address the tobacco disease burden and the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions (SCI) in seven Latin American countries. METHODS The preparatory stage included the organization of the research network, analysis of availability of epidemiologic data, and a survey to health decision makers to explore country-specific information needs. The development stage involved the harmonization of a methodology to retrieve local relevant parameters and develop the model structure. Calibration and validation was performed using a selected country dataset (Argentina 2005). Predicted event rates were compared to the published rates used as model inputs. External validation was undertaken against epidemiologic studies that were not used to provide input data. RESULTS Sixty-eight decision makers were surveyed. A microsimulation HEM was built considering the availability and quality of epidemiologic data and relevant outcomes conceived to suit the identified information needs of decision makers. It considers all tobacco-related diseases (i.e., heart, cerebrovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia/influenza, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms) and can incorporate individual- and population-level interventions. The calibrated model showed all simulated event rates falling within ± 10% of the sources (-9%-+5%). External validation showed a high correlation between published data and model results. CONCLUSIONS This evidence-based, internally and externally valid HEM for the assessment of the effects of smoking and SCIs incorporates a broad spectrum of tobacco related diseases, SCI, and benefit measures. It could be a useful policy-making tool to estimate tobacco burden and cost-effectiveness of SCI.